Sports playing is often very profitable if you know the secrets and techniques typically the “smart money” bettors work with to consistently make money. One of the greatest secrets that smart money gamblers use is knowing when NOT to bet.
Here’s a best example of this. I analyzed the Western Florida vs. Louisville activity, and concluded the fact that West Va had the edge in the activity. However , My spouse and i also recognized that there was a great deal of random and unforeseen factors, and recommended to my clients that they carry out not guarantee on that game. Here is the analysis I released before the game:
West Virginia or Louisville
This online game has all the indications of being one connected with the most effective games of the year, together with the two teams coming into the sport 7-0. It’s #3 positioned West Virginia compared to. #5 ranked Louisville, each with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s game was a classic, having West Virginia coming back again from appearing down big in the fourth 1 / 4 to winning within overtime, however,.
So what’s the sport seem like this year?
When this activity were as played from a basic field, West Va would likely probably be a 4-6 level favorite. Since the particular game was in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if บอลสเต็ป will make sense…
West Virginia will be on an unprecedented move. They will haven’t lost due to the fact April. 1, 2005, planning 14-0 since they dropped to Va Tech. Inside the last two periods they’re 13-5 ATS as well. They’re also 7-2 ATS in their last being unfaithful video games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 PATH games.
These types of are some very outstanding stats that tilt the scales in favor regarding WVU to get tonight’s games. Plus, the additional benefit is that WVU can be GETTING +1 point. This will likely not seem like substantially, but in a near match-up such as this, that special point will make the difference between a new push and a loss.
But some of us wonder what concerning Louisville?
Louisville’s gambling may be almost as good since WVU’s -except when this comes to Louisville within the point spread. In their own previous 10 games, Louisville is only 4-6 ATS. That said, Louisville is even now 7-3 ATS inside their last 10 home activities.
Plus if you’re leaning toward WVU, here’s a intimidating stat… Louisville hasn’t misplaced in your own home since 12 , 18, the year 2003! During this recent run Louisville is averaging 49. some points for each game in your own home, while hitting only stopping 15. six points per game from home. In case an individual don’t do the figures, that means given that their last home loss they’ve averaged beating his or her opponents simply by about thirty four details per game.
What’s more amazing, the average line in these games has only recently been 21 points. That means Louisville has beaten the particular spread, on average, simply by 13 factors per activity at home due to the fact the year 2003.
Wow… how can a person go against that?
Many of those stats have been established during the july 2004 season. Shock as to, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to good than great. They already have had recent games where they’ve only scored twenty eight, twenty-three, 24 points. These video games weren’t against Iowa Saint. or Michigan. These people were being against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St.
The end result is the fact that this is still a good close activity to contact. But what I look for is West Virginia’s security to carry the working day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, plus Kansas St. can just about all hold Louisville under 40 points, then there’s virtually no reason to think WVU can’t hold them to the low to mid 20’s. My honest suggestion is to lay off this specific game and definitely not bet at all. There usually are better video games this weekend break with more simple benefits.
The final score in this game was Louisville 44, West Virginia 34. Lousiville won because West Va had 6 fumbles plus allowed Lousiville to give back a punt for a new TD. The bottom line was that will West Virginia’s advantage was not so big they could still win following producing so many mistakes. Simply by not betting on this activity, people serious concerning gambling saved money these people can put to better work with on forthcoming games.